J. Matsuo (shiwaku-koichi@oyonet.oyo.co.jp), G.S. Gevorgyan (g_gevorg@yahoo.com), K. Shiwaku (shiwaku-koichi@oyonet.oyo.co.jp), A.S. Chilingaryan (armen.chilingaryan@undp.org)
Abstract
By 2050, a significant portion of the global population will reside downstream from thousands of large dams constructed during the 20th century. Many of these dams are currently operating at or beyond their intended lifespan, as indicated by an analysis conducted by the United Nations University. An illustrative case is the Sardoba reservoir in Uzbekistan, which ruptured at 05:55 on May l, 2020. Although no fatalities were reported, but 56 persons were injured and hospitalized, and more than 70 thousand people were evacuated from around 22 villages to neighboring areas. The outflow water reached even to Kazakhstan, where around 30 thousand people were also evacuated. The outflow from the reservoir was stopped and the water was discharged to Arnasai lake on May 8. Given the existence of numerous similarly outdated reservoirs in Armenia, the Government of Armenia, in cooperation with UNDP, is actively considering mitigation measures for such reservoirs.
To carry out flood simulations, the authors have developed specialized training software, a modified version of the flood software developed earlier under the UN-Habitat project. Besides, it is suggested to create a database compiled from water reservoir data. Considering the water reservoir safety, comprehensive management including maintenance is necessary, but this paper mainly focuses on the development of simplified hazard maps.
Keywords: simplified flood simulation, flood hazard map, mudflow, flood.
PAGES: 15-23