V.S. Khondkaryan (khondkaryan@yahoo.com )
Abstract
The feasibility of measures to ensure the safety of dams must be justified in the face of severe financial constraints and social factors. A risk-based approach to the operation of dams requires a reassessment of ideas about the prevailing, as a rule, spontaneous, ratio of the costs of preventive measures to reduce the risks of accidents and to mitigate their consequences. A key component of the risk management process is understanding the probability of failure under given loading conditions — hydrological, seismic, filtration, etc. (for example, the probability of failure at peak ground acceleration, the probability of failure at a certain filtration rate, etc.). Building an accident scenario by analyzing the tree of events and failures allows you to imagine the process of transition from one event to another, specify the causes and consequences (detail the process) and identify the links between them. Event and fault trees are tools used to inform decisions regarding dam safety. Like all other tools, they are imperfect and their potential value depends on the skill of the user.
Key words: risk, accident, dam, safety, failure, model, event tree.
PAGES: 102-108